I got a kick out of this fluffy interview with Ray C. Fair, whose "econometric" analysis has, apparently, predicted the outcomes of presidential elections with greater accuracy than public opinion polling. ("The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points," according to Fair.)
Never mind whether or not econometrics is all it's cracked up to be. The funny part is the New York Times interviewer, Deborah Solomon, who can't seem to get her mind around the idea that a guy like Fair might report results that do not advance his own agenda. Fair says he's a Kerry supporter, but his analysis predicts a 57.5% Bush victory. This does not compute. A true Kerry supporter would find a way to make his results predict a Kerry win, wouldn't he? Well, he would if he worked at the New York Times, I suppose.
Favorite "question" from Solomon: "it saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways."
(via Bill Quick)
Posted by Dr. Frank at August 16, 2004 04:43 PM | TrackBackThe more Kerry and Heinz speak, the more likely this prediction is. If John and Teresa would just shut the fuck up and let Edwards do all the talking then he'd have a real good chance. I'm supporting Bush by default.
Posted by: Zaphod Beeblebrox at August 16, 2004 06:13 PMYou'd never read shit like this in the Post. No sir, THAT is a good, honest, hard-workin' newspaper for people who don't have the "fancy highbrow education" required to read more than one syllable at a time.
Posted by: jeff at August 16, 2004 07:18 PM
i'm just going say you're crazy zaphod,
by default,and do church boys kiss their
mother with that mouth?; )
try writing me,your address still doesn't work.
Posted by: just me at August 16, 2004 10:00 PMSorry, but the Kerry-Heinze duo just makes me angry and people don't like me when I'm angry..... Skin......turning.......green.....
Posted by: Zaphod Beeblebrox at August 16, 2004 11:34 PM"it saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways."
Isn't this the essence of liberal "thought"? It's more important it be "complex" and "meaningful" than have real-world uses and applications?
Jeff,
Oh, yeah, I forgot. Conservatives and Republicans are incapable of handling polysyllabic reading material. We've never graduated from college, let alone attended one. Why, we don't even have our two front teeth!
This econometric business seems like a pretty ridiculous way to predict our next president. Much more logical is to examine their bloodlines, revealing, of course, that Kerry's to be elected:
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=949182004
Posted by: Dave Bug at August 17, 2004 06:15 AMThings is gettin' a might twitchy round here (DC) as we inch towards November, that much I can tell you. As though the mental and emotional state of the locals is some kind of anthill, and Bush, Kerry, et al have been taking turns relieving themselves on it. Most of my peers are experiencing extreme crises of conscience over whom to vote for, and the bombardment of idiocy from both sides is not making it any easier.
It's still too early to tell who could take the election. Me, I'm going Nader- though it's a pretty poor thing to vote for someone you wouldn't actually want in the oval office (the man's platform revolves a little too much around what are currently "soft" issues for my taste), I feel that a vote for him is a vote against the bipartisan paradigm, and that's the best I can hope for this year.
Regarding Mr. Fair- never heard of him before now, but he sounds like a real twinkie.
Posted by: Kid Somnambulist at August 17, 2004 01:00 PMYeah, I saw that interview earlier. I got the picture he didn't think much of the interviewer when he came out with that game theory answer. And I got the feeling the interviewer was annoyed.
Economists are so weird.
Posted by: Swimmy at August 17, 2004 03:07 PMDon't dis econometrics just because somebody did what is most likely a poor job applying it. Also, I think the bipartisan system gets a bad rap. The American population follows, roughly, a normal distribution along the political spectrum. At least a two party system means that canidates need to stay close to the center to win. The more canidates there are, the more likely a person with an extreme viewpoint, would be elected. It's not perfect by any means, but a two party system does protect against both religious right-wingers, and socialist left-wingers.
Posted by: josh at August 17, 2004 03:11 PMI really need to make up boilerplate on this, because this is the umpteenth blog I've had to respond to about Solomon; please forgive me if I sound impatient therefore.
The Deborah Solomon slot at the Magazine is deliberately intended for her to ask provocative, obnoxious, in-your-face questions. The Magazine, like the Book Review, is not part of the paper, but is a separate publication distributed with it. It is not a product of the news department.
I find the slot stupid and irritating, myself, but it no more represents the paper or news department (or editorial department) than "The Ethicist" does.
Posted by: Gary Farber at August 18, 2004 01:50 AMPoint taken, Gary. Nevertheless: I stand by my initial judgement that it is indeed rather funny.
Posted by: Dr. Frank at August 18, 2004 02:00 AM