Dr. Frank's What's-it

Of Hawks and Hippies Dennis

Of Hawks and Hippies

Dennis Ross, in today's Washington Post, spells out exactly how Saddam might be allowed to slip out of the trap, avoid a full-scale attack, and continue his surreptitious WMD programs:

Many have said that Hussein is homicidal, not suicidal, and that when faced with the alternatives of survival or acceptance of disarmament, he will accept disarmament.

Maybe, but I doubt Hussein feels he is truly being faced with that choice. In his mind, he believes he has been able to maneuver inspection regimes before, and this one, despite the toughened language and anywhere-anytime provisions, ultimately will be no different. And he may be right...

Hussein will certainly try to create the impression that he is complying with the resolution. No doubt he will turn over voluminous quantities of documents; he may even turn over materials he has heretofore hidden. But he will not turn over the crown jewels of his WMD programs -- especially in the nuclear and biological areas. He will count on the chief inspectors -- Hans Blix and Mohamed El Baradei -- not wanting to declare he is in violation of his obligations before they have even sent full inspection teams into Iraq.

The temptation on the part of the inspectors will be to declare that Iraq has taken a step in the right direction and that they remain willing to work with it, but that it is of course up to the Security Council to decide whether Iraq is in compliance and what steps to take. Will France and Russia be willing to declare this is the moment for the use of force? Unlikely.

Unlikely, indeed. As Ross points out, assuming Saddam "accepts" the resolution, the "moment of truth" is the December 8th deadline for full, transparent disclosure and accounting of all weapons programs, sites and personnel. If there is anything less than 100%, unequivocal cooperation (the kind amounting to total surrender) the war begins. Since there is pretty much no chance of securing this degree of compliance, we're looking at a full-scale Anglo-American assault on Iraq beginning on December 9th. Right?

Am I the only one who has doubts that this will be what actually happens? Hawks (relievedly) and hippies (bitterly) seem universally to share the conviction that this war is now inevitable. Of course, the scheme outlined above is a mite simplistic: in reality, there could be lots of twists and turns, threats and counter-threats, UN stagecraft, administration grandstanding, stages of deployment, etc., with an anti-Israel demonstration or two thrown in for good measure. But the bottom line is that Saddam Hussein must believe that an immediate overwhelming attack is the unavoidable consequence of even attempting to "play" the system. Despite the tough talk, the impressive diplomatic manoeuvering and apparent, albeit grudging, world-wide acquiescence, I doubt he does. And I have to say, I have a hard time believing it myself.

Posted by Dr. Frank at November 12, 2002 10:22 AM | TrackBack