Cops
Take a look at Bill Quick's close-reading and commentary on this Reuters report about Colin Powell's latest televised statements on Iraq. I think he's right. It certainly looks as though the administration is laying the groundwork for a retreat. (Or perhaps an indefinite delay, which comes to the same thing.)
Did you think that the December 8th deadline for Iraq to declare its weapons programs was the moment of truth, and that the resulting "severe consequences" would include an invasion? Despite the enduring faith of some of GWB's indefatigable cheerleaders, this time-table has always seemed a bit far-fetched to me. Powell's statements seem to bear out this skepticism. At minimum, this looks like an attempt to preserve the (disastrous) option of inaction, in the event that the Commander in Chief is unable to summon the fortitude to make the decision to act. (Of course, if this can be accomplished while leaving the impression that action is just around the corner, so much the better.)
President Bush said on Wednesday that Saddam would be entering his "final stage" if he says in the declaration that he has no such weapons.Other members of the Security Council say that a false declaration alone would not justify war.
I don't think it's all part of some elaborate, perfectly-planned disinformation campaign to keep the enemy guessing. (Though, if so, it will have been one of the most effective in history: if there is an attack on Dec. 9th, thereabouts, or even in the next year, I'm pretty sure it will come as a complete surprise to Saddam Hussein-- he clearly believes that the US and the UNSC are just blowing smoke.) Is Powell merely playing "good cop" to Bush's "bad cop"? There's some precedent for this, of course. But to what end?
I keep thinking of another, more worrying, good cop/bad cop scenario, in which the Bush administration with its bellicose rhetoric is the bad cop to the UN/EU's conciliatory good cop. The mutual, unarticulated, de facto goal: to preserve the status quo in the Middle East while cultivating the appearance that something is being done about the problem. That was the goal of the GHWB foreign policy team (many of whom are still with us), and it led to the disastrous lack of resolution to the Gulf War and to so many of our current problems. 9/11 was supposed to have changed everything. We shall see.
As it stands at this moment, we have something like the worst-case scenario on our hands: a strident ultimatum backed by threats that no one takes very seriously. Meanwhile, the clock is still ticking, and our Islamist enemies grow more emboldened with every second.
Posted by Dr. Frank at November 22, 2002 08:50 AM | TrackBack